Am pretty sure that any and every birder who regularly watches a coastal area or migration hot spot will agree with me when I say spring 2018 has been absolutely dire. Numbers and the variety of species has been dismal, with only two single days here when the bushes could have been described as being 'busy'. The skies have been far quieter than usual too, with very few days when visible migration actually got going.
Now this on it's own could mean nothing. In my opinion you simply cannot accurately monitor population numbers of migrant birds species on 'how many you see passing through the coast'. There are just too many variable factors when it comes to migration and spring falls, with the weather being the greatest. If the sky is blue and there's a gentle south westerly wind giving migrants a helping hand as they fly north over the English Channel, then there's absolutely no need for them to land on the first bit of coast they see. Also, if they've had a good trip up from South Africa to Southern Europe, then they'll have more reserves than if they'd had a bad trip up, so again, less likely to drop in on the south coast of UK. Food availability can be a major factor too, if they've had plenty of chances to feed up during their journey northwards then they will again have more reserves to fly further without the need to stop. So so many variable factors that can dictate how many migrant birds we see on the south coast during spring.
What is really worrying though is the comments and stats I'm seeing all over the internet regarding the numbers of many of our migrant birds on their breeding grounds. Let's take a quick look at BTO BirdTrack, the best platform to monitor and compare UK bird population data through citizen science. This is the current graph for House Martin...
And Grasshopper Warbler...
The magnitude of comments that I've read on Twitter and various blogs regarding poor numbers of some of our migrant species on breeding sites have been particularly focused on Swift, Swallow, Willow Warbler, Sedge Warbler and Common Whitethroat. Also some of the scarcer species seem to be in a bad way too, like Wood Warbler and Nightingale.
A week or so ago I was pretty certain spring was just running late this year, but it's the 18th of May and I'm now thinking this isn't the case. I really do fear something catastrophic may have happened, either during the spring migration or on their wintering grounds.
I'd be very interested to know what your eyes/ears/stats/mist nets are telling you, drop me an email or leave a comment if you get the chance.
I'd be very interested to know what your eyes/ears/stats/mist nets are telling you, drop me an email or leave a comment if you get the chance.































